St James Quarter, Edinburgh - Retail Strategy

 

About the brand

As Scotland’s capital and the largest driver of tourist visits to the UK outside of London, Edinburgh has long been in need of a retail and leisure offering befitting its status.

In 2021, Nuveen will launch is long-awaited St James Quarter development. Boasting 850k ft2 of retail, dining and leisure space, St James Quarter will be a world renowned, retail-led, mixed-use development for the future, transforming the city’s East End by creating a vibrant destination for people to live, shop, experience and play.

The Challenge/Task

Given its macro and micro location and the sheer scale of development and investment, St James Quarter has been in development for a number of years. No amount of foresight could have seen a global pandemic, however Nuveen has continued to secure occupiers even in an uncertain market undergoing structural change.

Nuveen required independent assessment of target occupier performance and profitability, to both validate assumptions regarding potential rental income and to reassure themselves that target occupiers would become longstanding partners, making St James Quarter central to their business plans.

WHAT WE DID

Pragma worked closely with Nuveen to understand the scale, nature and timing of development to understand, forecast and quantify the potential impact of St James Quarter, including:

  • Review of the impact of St James Quarter on Edinburgh’s catchment extent, penetration, visitor profile and turnover, by merchandise category

  • Assessment of St James Quarter on the performance of existing Edinburgh occupiers, by merchandise category, price position and micro-location

  • Independent review of potential turnover performance for over 30 target occupiers for St James Quarter, covering a range of merchandise categories, unit sizes and price points

  • Bespoke analysis of target occupier business models, helping Nuveen understand target occupier profitability in the context of each parent company’s performance and where a St James Quarter store would sit within target occupier’s portfolio

The Result

The insight and output provided by Pragma has provided a robust foundation to support the attraction of a compelling occupier mix making St James Quarter hugely relevant for consumers, occupiers and investors alike.

“We have found Pragma’s forecasts to be unerringly accurate in the majority of cases, to within a very close tolerance, and certainly much closer than other models employed by other consultants.  Armed with a track record on both sides, we see our ongoing relationship as an integral part of the asset’s future performance.”

CHRIS PYNE
Director, European Retail, Nuveen Real Estate