Bubble wrap

Predicting Christmas shopping patterns is somewhat of a dark art, and the continuing impact of Brexit and the uncertainty around Covid has made trend analysis even more difficult.

However, we have found some micro trends which could dictate the winners and losers of Christmas 2020.

These trends have been broadly grouped into two drivers:

• The conscious consumer – Many shoppers have re-evaluated who they shop with and what they buy during the pandemic and this is likely to affect their Christmas shopping
  

• The agile operator – The Christmas rush will undeniably look different this year: how operators select and distribute their stock ranges will define their success in the coming weeks

The battle between online and in store
Aside from the obvious beneficiaries of the convenience of online shopping (Amazon et al.), online companies that have activated or developed their online presence during the pandemic, are expected to see the benefits during the festive period. John Lewis, Dunelm and Ted Baker have all offered tailored shopping services via online consultations or virtual reality stores, while pureplay online retailers such as I Saw It First and Boohoo pivoted their offer to include loungewear during the year to maintain sales and remain in shoppers' minds.

Brick and mortar retailers who have failed to evolve their offer to reflect the times will be the key losers here. Consumers are typically more targeted while shopping online, leaving limited opportunity for impulse purchases at the till. Retailers that ensure that their online offering is clear and easy to navigate (while providing some gifting inspiration) will be the most successful.

One example that bucks the trend of a strong online presence is Primark. In the four weeks up to September it saw its highest-ever value and volume of sales for that time of year, likely helped by pent up demand which is expected to be mirrored following the loosening of restrictions last week. This performance could be a key footfall driver to other retailers on UK high streets looking to capture a fraction of the Christmas market.

The role of grocery
In addition to the convenience of online, grocery providers have been a constant during the pandemic. Brands such and Nespresso and Sweaty Betty will capitalise on this at Christmas by collaborating with Waitrose to offer click and collect from their stores. Having established collections for John Lewis items within Waitrose, branching out into other brands not only draws new customers in store, but also allows shoppers to collect their gifts from somewhere that has become relatively familiar during this time, building consumer confidence.

On the topic of grocers changing their approach, Morrisons has developed a dinner subscription box to rival brands such as Gousto and Hello Fresh which have both seen significant growth during this period. As many people have developed their cooking skills as a lockdown hobby, thoughtful gifts like subscription boxes may be an option to spread the joy of Christmas beyond the 25th.

The rise of indie
A recent YouGov survey found that 64% of people want to support local businesses and buy local products as a result of coronavirus. Many local businesses became community hubs during the pandemic and the news coverage on the struggles of small businesses is likely to encourage consumers to shop and support the local economy.

This is also being boosted by social media. A recent Instagram update has rearranged the app to more heavily promote the integrated shopping platform. This is likely to benefit the over 95k businesses which were set up in the UK between July and September, as they try to reach their audience during this period.

Who will win and who will lose?
Brands that have been agile enough to augment their delivery strategy, as seen with Sweaty Betty and Nespresso, as well as those that have been able to pivot the stock to being more online friendly will see the best results during this season. Consumers have a difficult choice between convenience and conscience as they choose between Amazon and independents, but given the warmth and positivity for local communities that we have seen over 2020. It would not be surprising to see the needle shifting closer to local and independents than it has done in previous years.

Natasha Hewitt